NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Steelers vs. Bills playoff preview: Can Pittsburgh cool down red-hot Buffalo?

From a disaster season to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Not bad for Josh Allen and NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe Buffalo Bills. 

Buffalo defeated the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East-deciding matchup on “Sunday Night Football” for their fourth straight division title. They’ve won at least one home playoff game in each of the last three postseasons and will look to make it a fourth over the No. 7 seed Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). 

The Steelers’ victory over the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens on Saturday kept their playoff hopes alive. A Jacksonville Jaguars loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday clinched their postseason spot, and they awaited their seeding based on the "SNF" game. The Bills' victory means Pittsburgh is heading to Buffalo as the underdog.

Bills’ wild ride to division title

Buffalo was 6-6 entering its Week 13 bye following a devastating overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. But they defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on the road on the other side of the off week. Buffalo was off to the races from there. The Bills won five in a row to end the season, while Miami coughed up its hefty division lead (losing twice to Buffalo this season didn’t help). The Bills defeated three playoff teams during that stretch: the Chiefs, the Dallas Cowboys and the Dolphins. 

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Will Steelers' T.J. Watt play after injury? 

The 2023 NFL sack leader exited Saturday’s game with a knee injury that was diagnosed as a Grade 2 MCL sprain. Watt’s brother, former NFL player turned media analyst J.J. Watt, wrote on social media that it was the “best-case scenario” and that the injury will require a few weeks of “rest/recovery,” casting doubt upon T.J. Watt’s availability to play against the Chiefs. 

Who will be Steelers' QB?

All signs point to Mason Rudolph holding onto the role he's held for the last three weeks. All three have been Pittsburgh victories, necessary for the Steelers to advance to the postseason.

Rudolph, a 2018 third-round draft pick by Pittsburgh, re-signed with the Steelers this offseason. He did not appear in a game in 2022.

The Steelers started the year with 2022 first-rounder Kenny Pickett at quarterback. But Pickett suffered a late-season ankle injury, and backup Mitchell Trubisky was uninspiring once promoted, prompting head coach Mike Tomlin to give Rudolph a look in hopes he could provide a spark.

Since taking over the starting role, Rudolph has completed nearly 75% of his passes and has five touchdowns with no interceptions (one fumble lost).